The New World Order = Are We Safe?

michael3658
7 days ago
5 min read

A data-driven white paper comparing past and present risks—global wars, school shootings, political uprisings and assassinations, police brutality—and how these shape interpersonal abuse and safety

Executive Summary

Are we safer now than in earlier eras of global turmoil? The answer is mixed. Long‑run data show that after a historic decline in battle‑related deaths and homicides following the mid‑20th century, the world has seen a notable uptick in war lethality since the 2010s—peaking again with Ethiopia (2020–22) and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine (2022– )—and persistent or rising risks in domains like school shootings (U.S.) and police killings (U.S.). At the same time, violent crime has fallen in many places, and terrorism deaths have declined from their 2014 peak. New technologies (social media, drones) both enable harm and improve detection, documentation, and defense.

Overall, globally, we remain safer than the most violent 20th‑century peaks, but recent trends are moving in the wrong direction in several categories, and the lived experience of safety is uneven across societies and groups.

1) Historical Context & Comparison Points

This paper benchmarks the current period against prior eras of turmoil:

1914–1945: World Wars I & II (extreme battle deaths and civilian targeting).
1960s–1970s: Decade(s) of political assassinations, civil rights uprisings, urban unrest, and high violent crime in several countries.
1990s–2000s: Post‑Cold War conflicts (Balkans, Great Lakes), a long global crime drop in many countries, and a terrorism spike post‑2001.
2010s–2020s: Wars in Syria, Yemen, Ethiopia; Russia–Ukraine; rising non‑state conflicts in more regions; social media‑mediated mobilizations; U.S. school shootings and police‑involved fatalities drawing sustained attention.

2) War & Organized Violence

Long‑run battle deaths declined dramatically after 1945, but have risen in the last decade, with spikes linked to Ethiopia and Ukraine (Our World in Data; UCDP/PRIO). Recent UCDP reporting indicates 2024 battle‑related deaths were highest in Ukraine (≈76,000), with overall conflict numbers increasing. These figures remain below World War levels, but the direction is adverse.
Drones and long‑range strikes intensify civilian exposure. Reporting from 2025 documents massive drone/missile barrages in Ukraine, producing civilian casualties and widespread psychological harm (‘acoustic terror’).

3) Homicide & Interpersonal Violence

Global homicide rates have generally declined since the 1990s, though variation by country and region is large (UNODC; Our World in Data). Some countries have seen significant improvements, while others remain at high rates.
Despite this long‑run drop, specific U.S. risks draw concern: school shootings have surged over the last decade (K‑12 School Shooting Database), and police killings reached a record in 2024 (Mapping Police Violence).

4) Terrorism & Political Assassinations

Terrorism deaths rose sharply after 2001 and peaked around 2014, but have since declined globally, though risks remain concentrated in certain regions (Global Terrorism Database via Our World in Data).
Political assassinations persist historically and contemporarily, including recent high‑profile cases; frequency is lower than in mid‑20th‑century turmoil in many democracies but remains a salient risk (research overviews and datasets vary).

5) How Macro Turmoil Impacts Abuse & Household Safety

Macro instability—war, political unrest, economic shocks—elevates risks of intimate partner violence (IPV), child abuse, and community violence via stressors, displacement, and weakened institutions. While global homicide may fall, localized crises can produce spikes in domestic abuse and femicide. Robust service systems and social protection mitigate these effects; surveillance and data systems (e.g., standardized homicide/femicide reporting) improve detection.

6) Are We More or Less Safe Than Then?

Compared to the World Wars: We are safer globally—current battle‑death levels are far lower.
Compared to the late 20th century: Many countries are safer from homicide and terrorism than in the 1990s/2010s peaks; however, organized conflict has risen recently, and certain U.S. phenomena (school shootings, police killings) show worsening trends.
Technology’s double‑edge: Social media and smartphones document abuse, mobilize support, and improve early warning, yet also amplify extremism, harassment, disinformation; drones and precision weapons can both reduce combatant casualties and expose civilians to new forms of attack.

7) Implications

1) Invest in conflict‑prevention and atrocity‑monitoring (UCDP/PRIO, OWID) and civilian‑protection tech (early warning, defenses against drone/missile attacks).

2) Standardize homicide/femicide data and expand violence‑prevention services during crises (UNODC data portals).

3) Address U.S. outliers: strengthen gun‑safety measures, school security balanced with wellbeing, and evidence‑based policing reforms.

4) Leverage platforms for harm‑reduction: use social media for verified alerts and support, and regulate abuse‑amplifying dynamics.

5) Maintain a survivor‑centred lens: ensure IPV/child‑protection services surge capacity during macro shocks.

References (selected)

· Our World in Data (2024). War and Peace: long‑run trends in battle deaths. https://ourworldindata.org/war-and-peace

· UCDP/PRIO (2025). Conflict Trends 1946–2023; Battle‑Related Deaths Dataset v25.1. https://www.prio.org/publications/14006 ; https://ucdp.uu.se/downloads/

· Uppsala University (2025). Sharp increase in conflicts and wars; most deaths in Ukraine (≈76,000 in 2024). https://www.uu.se/en/press/press-releases/2025/2025-06-11-ucdp-sharp-increase-in-conflicts-and-wars

· Washington Post (2025). Russia’s nightly air raids on Ukraine and ‘acoustic terror’.

· UNODC (2023). Global Study on Homicide; data portal. https://www.unodc.org/unodc/data-and-analysis/global-study-on-homicide.html ; https://dataunodc.un.org/

· Our World in Data (2023). Homicides: global levels and trends. https://ourworldindata.org/homicides

· K‑12 School Shooting Database (Riedman, 2025). https://k12ssdb.org/

· Mapping Police Violence (2025). https://mappingpoliceviolence.org/ ; Research brief: 2024 was the deadliest year. https://campaignzero.org/research/mapping-police-violence-2024-was-the-deadliest-year-for-police-violence/

· Global Terrorism Database (START). https://www.start.umd.edu/data-tools/GTD ; Our World in Data Terrorism overview.

8) Why ESD Is More Relevant Than Ever

The current convergence of global conflict, mass shootings, and police violence underscores the importance of personal and community safety skills. Empowerment Self‑Defense (ESD) equips individuals with practical strategies for awareness, de‑escalation, boundary‑setting, and, when necessary, physical defense and escape. Unlike traditional self‑defense models, ESD integrates psychological preparedness, social context, and survivor‑centered approaches, making it well‑suited to contemporary risks amplified by technology and political instability.ESD Global has also evolved its prevention strategy to include not only female participants but also men and boys. Research shows that effective prevention requires engaging men as allies, bystanders, and peers who reject harmful norms and support safety. Programs in Kenya, Malawi, and North America have demonstrated that when boys and men are taught intervention skills and respect for boundaries alongside girls’ empowerment training, rates of sexual assault and harassment decrease significantly. This dual‑focus approach strengthens the overall ecosystem: empowering women to assert their rights while cultivating positive masculinity and accountability among men.In a world where social media can magnify harassment, and drones and surveillance increase risks in conflict zones, ESD’s adaptable, evidence‑based approach remains one of the few prevention strategies with randomized‑trial evidence. Its expansion to male inclusion acknowledges that community safety is collective, and reducing violence requires all genders working together.

Additional References

· ESD Global. (2024). Prevention strategy: including both female and male focus.

· Hollander, J. (2021). Women’s self-defense and sexual assault resistance. Sociology Compass.

· Senn, C., et al. (2015). Enhanced Assess, Acknowledge, Act (EAAA) randomized trial. JAMA Pediatrics.

· Sinclair, J., et al. (2013). Bystander and self-defense training in Kenya. PLoS ONE.

· BMC Public Health (2018). Cluster randomized trial of school-based ESD in Malawi.